نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Technological and digital transformations in the field of urban development have fundamentally reshaped the way cities are planned, managed, and experienced, contributing to the emergence and expansion of the smart city paradigm. However, the growing emphasis on technological advancement has raised concerns regarding the social dimensions of smart urban development and the extent to which the benefits of digital transformation are equitably distributed among different groups of citizens. Accordingly, the concept of the inclusive smart city has gained increasing significance, emphasizing not only technological innovation and digital infrastructure but also equity, social inclusion, citizen participation, transparency, accessibility, and responsive urban governance. Nevertheless, the transition toward an inclusive smart city is influenced by multiple political, institutional, technological, and social uncertainties, making it essential to explore alternative pathways and possible futures. This study investigates the future of the inclusive smart city in the metropolis of Rasht by 2040 (1420 in the Iranian Solar Hijri calendar) using a scenario planning approach. The main objective is to identify the key driving forces affecting the realization of an inclusive smart city and to construct plausible future scenarios based on the GBN (Global Business Network) scenario planning method.To achieve this objective, an exploratory process was initially conducted through four focus group sessions involving 25 experts with specialized knowledge in urban planning, information and communication technologies, and urban governance. Through these sessions, a comprehensive set of driving forces influencing the future development of an inclusive smart city in Rasht was identified. The identified variables were subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software to determine their degree of influence and dependence and to identify the key driving forces shaping the system. The results of the structural analysis were then complemented by an Importance–Uncertainty Matrix, through which two critical uncertainties were identified: “the level of transparency and openness of urban management systems” and “the extent of active and online citizen participation in urban decision-making.” The combination of these two critical uncertainties provided the basis for constructing four alternative scenarios for the future of the inclusive smart city in Rasht.The four scenarios include: the Glass City, characterized by transparent governance, extensive citizen participation, and open digital infrastructure; the Smart Elites City (Top-Down), in which data and technological capabilities are primarily accessible to elites and technocrats, while broad public participation remains limited; the Silent Technology scenario (Bottom-Up), characterized by relatively high levels of social participation but limited transparency and an opaque decision-making environment; and the Closed City (Bottom-Down), marked by data monopolization, minimal citizen participation, and highly controlling urban governance.The findings demonstrate that technological advancement and digital infrastructure, although essential components of smart urban development, are not sufficient to ensure inclusiveness. Rather, the quality and openness of urban governance institutions, together with the capacity and willingness of citizens to participate meaningfully in decision-making processes, constitute decisive factors in shaping the future of inclusive smart cities. The developed scenarios can serve as a strategic foresight tool for urban policymakers and managers, enabling them to anticipate alternative futures, identify emerging challenges and opportunities, and formulate flexible and adaptive strategies for guiding Rasht toward a more transparent, participatory, equitable, and inclusive smart city.
کلیدواژهها English
توسعه پایدار شهری