Inclusive Smart City Foresight through Scenario-Based Planning: (A Case Study of Rasht, Iran)

Ahmadi, Mohammad; Gholipour, Yaser; Shakeri Mansour, Elahe

doi:10.22034/usd.2026.2060639.1362

Inclusive Smart City Foresight through Scenario-Based Planning: (A Case Study of Rasht, Iran)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mohammad Ahmadi ¹

Yaser Gholipour ²

Elahe Shakeri Mansour ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Human Science, Kosar University of Bojnord, Bojnord, Iran.

² Master’s Student in Urban Planning, Department of Urbanism, Faculty of Architecture and Art, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.

³ Postdoctoral in Urban and Regional Planning, Department of Social, Urban and Regional Planning. Faculty of Social Sciences, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22034/usd.2026.2060639.1362

Abstract

Technological and digital transformations in the field of urban development have fundamentally reshaped the way cities are planned, managed, and experienced, contributing to the emergence and expansion of the smart city paradigm. However, the growing emphasis on technological advancement has raised concerns regarding the social dimensions of smart urban development and the extent to which the benefits of digital transformation are equitably distributed among different groups of citizens. Accordingly, the concept of the inclusive smart city has gained increasing significance, emphasizing not only technological innovation and digital infrastructure but also equity, social inclusion, citizen participation, transparency, accessibility, and responsive urban governance. Nevertheless, the transition toward an inclusive smart city is influenced by multiple political, institutional, technological, and social uncertainties, making it essential to explore alternative pathways and possible futures. This study investigates the future of the inclusive smart city in the metropolis of Rasht by 2040 (1420 in the Iranian Solar Hijri calendar) using a scenario planning approach. The main objective is to identify the key driving forces affecting the realization of an inclusive smart city and to construct plausible future scenarios based on the GBN (Global Business Network) scenario planning method.To achieve this objective, an exploratory process was initially conducted through four focus group sessions involving 25 experts with specialized knowledge in urban planning, information and communication technologies, and urban governance. Through these sessions, a comprehensive set of driving forces influencing the future development of an inclusive smart city in Rasht was identified. The identified variables were subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software to determine their degree of influence and dependence and to identify the key driving forces shaping the system. The results of the structural analysis were then complemented by an Importance–Uncertainty Matrix, through which two critical uncertainties were identified: “the level of transparency and openness of urban management systems” and “the extent of active and online citizen participation in urban decision-making.” The combination of these two critical uncertainties provided the basis for constructing four alternative scenarios for the future of the inclusive smart city in Rasht.The four scenarios include: the Glass City, characterized by transparent governance, extensive citizen participation, and open digital infrastructure; the Smart Elites City (Top-Down), in which data and technological capabilities are primarily accessible to elites and technocrats, while broad public participation remains limited; the Silent Technology scenario (Bottom-Up), characterized by relatively high levels of social participation but limited transparency and an opaque decision-making environment; and the Closed City (Bottom-Down), marked by data monopolization, minimal citizen participation, and highly controlling urban governance.The findings demonstrate that technological advancement and digital infrastructure, although essential components of smart urban development, are not sufficient to ensure inclusiveness. Rather, the quality and openness of urban governance institutions, together with the capacity and willingness of citizens to participate meaningfully in decision-making processes, constitute decisive factors in shaping the future of inclusive smart cities. The developed scenarios can serve as a strategic foresight tool for urban policymakers and managers, enabling them to anticipate alternative futures, identify emerging challenges and opportunities, and formulate flexible and adaptive strategies for guiding Rasht toward a more transparent, participatory, equitable, and inclusive smart city.

Keywords

Smart City

Inclusive City

Urban Futures

Rasht

20.1001.1.27170128.1405.7.23.6.6

Subjects

Urbanization

· Andrews, C., de Montesquiou, A., Arevalo Sanchez, I., Dutta, P. V., Paul, B. V., Samaranayake, S., … Chaudhary, S. (2021). The state of economic inclusion report 2021: The potential to scale. The World Bank.

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/909561611117067647/pdf/The-State-of-Economic-Inclusion-Report-2021-The-Potential-to-Scale.pdf

· Anttiroiko, A.-V., & de Jong, M. (2020a). Real-life cases of inclusive urban development. In A.-V. Anttiroiko, & M. de Jong (Eds.), The Inclusive City: The theory and practice of creating shared urban prosperity (pp. 97–119). Springer International Publishing.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61365-5_7.

· Arup, Climate-KIC, & UNDP. (2024). Smarter and Inclusive Cities (Course Materials). Urban Learning Center.

https://share.google/kf2eDyG3xm44vk4i8

· Asadi, A. & Ahadnejad Roshti, M. (2025). Identifying the Factors Influencing the Realization of Inclusive City, Case Study: Tabriz Metropolis. Journal of Urban Ecology Research, 16(1), 37-54.

https://doi.org/10.30473/grup.2024.68584.2799

· Asian Development Bank. (2022). Inclusive Cities: Urban Area Guidelines. Asian Development Bank.

https://doi.org/10.22617/TIM200037-2

· Berrone, P., & Ricart, J., E. (2022). IESE Cities in Motion Index 2022.

https://www.iese.edu/media/research/pdfs/ST-0633-E.pdf

· Bilodeau, A., White, S. E., Turgeon, L., & Henderson, A. (2020). Feeling attached and feeling accepted: Implications for political inclusion among visible minority immigrants in Canada. International Migration, 58(2), 272–288.

https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12657

· Caragliu, A., Del Bo, C. F., & Nijkamp, P. (2011). Smart cities in Europe. Journal of Urban Technology, 18(2), 65–82.

https://doi.org/10.1080/10630732.2011.601117

· Carvalho, L. (2015). Smart cities from scratch? A socio-technical perspective, Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy, and Society. 8 (1) 43–60.

https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsu010

· DeOliveira Neto, J.S.; Kofuji, S.T. (2016). Inclusive smart city: An exploratory study. In Universal Access in Human-Computer Interaction, Proceedings of the Interaction Techniques and Environments: 10th International Conference, UAHCI 2016, Held as Part of HCI International 2016, Toronto, ON, Canada.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-40244-4_44.

· EIP-SCC. Inclusive Smart Cities: A European Manifesto on Citizen Engagement. 2023.

· Elias, P. (2020). Inclusive city, perspectives, challenges, and pathways. In W. Leal Filho, A. Marisa Azul, L. Brandli, P. G¨ okçin ¨ Ozuyar, & T. Wall (Eds.), Sustainable cities and communities (pp. 290–300). Springer International Publishing.

· Giffinger, R., & Gudrun, H. (2010). Smart cities ranking: An effective instrument for the positioning of the cities? ACE: Architecture, City and Environment, 4(12), 7–26.

https://doi.org/10.5821/ace.v4i12.2483

· Harrison, C., & Donnelly, I. A. (2011). A theory of smart cities. In Paper presented at the proceedings of the 55th annual meeting of the ISSS-2011, Hull, UK.

https://journals.isss.org/index.php/proceedings55th/article/view/1703

· Lebrument, N., Zumbo-Lebrument, C., Rochette, C., & Roulet, T. J. (2021). Triggering participation in smart cities: Political efficacy, public administration satisfaction and sense of belonging as drivers of citizens’ intention. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 171.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120938

· Lee, J., Babcock, J., Pham, T. S., Bui, T. H., & Kang, M. (2023). Smart city as a social transition towards inclusive development through technology: A tale of four smart cities. International Journal of Urban Sciences, 27(S1), 75–100.

https://doi.org/10.1080/12265934.2022.2074076

· Lepore, D., Testi, N., & Pasher, E. (2023). Building Inclusive Smart Cities through Innovation Intermediaries. Sustainability, 15(2), 1083.

https://doi.org/10.3390/su15054024

· Liang, D., De Jong, M., Schraven, D., & Wang, L. (2022). Mapping key features and dimensions of the inclusive city: A systematic bibliometric analysis and literature study. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 29(1), 60–79.

https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2021.1911873

· Makkonen, T., & Inkinen, T. (2024). Inclusive smart cities? Technology-driven urban development and disabilities. Cities, 154, 105334.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.105334

· Maxwell, L. (2018). how-to-ensure-that-your-smart-city-strategy-is-inclusive Smart City Strategy: Facilitating successful urban transformation.

https://www.beesmart.city/en/smart-city-blog/how-to-ensure-that-your-smart-city-strategy-is-inclusive

· Neirotti, P., De Marco, A., Cagliano, A. C., Mangano, G., & Scorrano, F. (2014). Current trends in Smart City initiatives: Some stylised facts. Cities, 38, 25–36.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.12.010

· Oyadeyi, O. A., & Oyadeyi, O. O. (2025). Towards inclusive and sustainable strategies in smart cities: A comparative analysis of Zurich, Oslo, and Copenhagen. Research in Globalization, 10, 100271.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100271.

· Petríková, D., & Petríková, L. (2020). Inclusive and Accessible SMART City for All. In N. V. M. Lopes (Ed.), Smart Governance for Cities: Perspectives and Experiences (pp. 73–81). Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22070-9_5

· Poku-Boansi, M., Blija, D. K., Anin-Yeboah, O. Y. A., Asibey, M. O., & Amponsah, O. (2024). The place of translocal networks in inclusive city development: A systematic review. Urban Governance, 4(4), 340-350.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ugj.2024.11.002

· Romanelli, M. (2022). Driving smart inclusive cities. ITAIS 2022 Proceedings.

https://aisel.aisnet.org/itais2022/9/

· Sasanpour, F, Asadzadeh, H & Hatami, A. (2024). Ubiquitous City: New Perspective in the Planning of Future Cities. Human Geography Research, 56(2), 17-34.

https://doi.org/10.22059/jhgr.2023.266196.1007777

· Ssekatawa, D. (2016). Towards more socially inclusive smart sustainable cities: A study of smart city districts in the Greater Copenhagen region. In IIIEE Master Theses IMEN41 20162, The International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics.

https://lup.lub.lu.se/student-papers/search/organization/v1000927

· Tekin, H., & Dikmen, I. (2024). Inclusive Smart Cities: An Exploratory Study on the London Smart City Strategy. Buildings, 14(2), 485.

https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14020485

· UN-Habitat. (2016). The new urban agenda. Habitat III.

· United Nations, 2017. The New Urban Agenda. Quito, Ecuador.

· Vanolo, A. (2016). Is there anybody out there? The place and role of citizens in tomorrow’s smart cities. Futures, 82, 26–36.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.05.010

· Wang, C. (2020). A Resource Guide for an Inclusive Smart City.

https://idea.ap.buffalo.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/110/2019/04/InclusiveSmartCities_Report.pdf

· Wang, D., Zhou, T., & Wang, M. (2021). Information and communication technology (ICT), digital divide and urbanization: Evidence from Chinese cities. Technology in Society, 64.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101516

· World Bank. (2015a). World inclusive cities approach paper. In report no. AUS8539. DC: World Bank Washington.

https://share.google/f3vsuTGrtu8tHrqi5

· Sha, K., & Taeihagh, A. (2024). Designing adaptive policy packages for inclusive smart cities: Lessons from Singapore's smart nation program. Sustainable Cities and Society, 115, 105868.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105868

· World Bank. (2015b). Everyone counts: Making the cities of tomorrow more inclusive. World Bank.

https://share.google/SZwwJY5sRKa2yWZy2

· Yang, R., & Zhen, F. (2024). Smart city development models: A cross-cultural regional analysis from theory to practice. Research in Globalization, 8, 100221.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100221

· Yigitcanlar, T., Kamcev, B., Wilson, S., & Velibeyoglu, K. (2019). How can cities become smart? An integrated framework. In Routledge Handbook of Smart Cities (pp. 11-25). Routledge.

· Zhao, R., de Jong, M., & Edelenbos, J. (2023). Will the true inclusive city rise? Mapping the strengths and weaknesses of the city ranking systems. Cities, 143, 104617.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2023.104617