آینده‌پژوهی شهر هوشمند فراگیر با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی سناریو-مبنا (مطالعه موردی: شهر رشت)

technological and digital transformations in urban planning have led to the emergence of the “smart city” concept. However, what is increasingly critical today is the inclusiveness of these cities. A truly smart city must be not only technologically advanced but also just, participatory, and accountable. Nevertheless, the path toward realizing such a city is fraught with political, institutional, and social uncertainties.



This study explores the future of an inclusive smart city in Rasht, a major metropolitan area in northern Iran, with a time horizon set for 2040, using a scenario-based planning approach. The main objective is to identify the key driving forces shaping the future of inclusive smart cities and to generate plausible scenarios using the GBN (Global Business Network) method.



To achieve this, a comprehensive literature review was conducted alongside an expert consultation process involving 45 specialists in urban planning, technology, and urban governance. This led to the identification of a set of driving forces. Through the use of an impact-uncertainty matrix, two critical uncertainties emerged: (1) the level of transparency and openness in urban management systems, and (2) the degree of active and online citizen participation in urban decision-making. Based on the interaction of these two drivers, four distinct scenarios were constructed:



The Glass City (High-High): Characterized by transparent governance, robust citizen engagement, and open digital infrastructure.



The Smart Elite City (High-Low): A scenario where open data is accessible to elites and technocrats, with limited public participation.



Silent Technology (Low-High): A future marked by high civic engagement but opaque decision-making environments.



The Closed City (Low-Low): Dominated by data monopolies, minimal participation, and authoritarian control.



The findings suggest that achieving an inclusive smart city requires more than technological advancement; the quality of governance institutions and the degree of societal participation are equally—if not more—critical. The developed scenarios serve as cognitive tools to help urban decision-makers anticipate possible futures and formulate adaptive strategies accordingly.echnological and digital transformations in urban planning have led to the emergence of the “smart city” concept. However, what is increasingly critical today is the inclusiveness of these cities. A truly smart city must be not only technologically advanced but also just, participatory, and accountable. Nevertheless, the path toward realizing such a city is fraught with political, institutional, and social uncertainties.



This study explores the future of an inclusive smart city in Rasht, a major metropolitan area in northern Iran, with a time horizon set for 2040, using a scenario-based planning approach. The main objective is to identify the key driving forces shaping the future of inclusive smart cities and to generate plausible scenarios using the GBN (Global Business Network) method.



To achieve this, a comprehensive literature review was conducted alongside an expert consultation process involving 45 specialists in urban planning, technology, and urban governance. This led to the identification of a set of driving forces. Through the use of an impact-uncertainty matrix, two critical uncertainties emerged: (1) the level of transparency and openness in urban management systems, and (2) the degree of active and online citizen participation in urban decision-making. Based on the interaction of these two drivers, four distinct scenarios were constructed:



The Glass City (High-High): Characterized by transparent governance, robust citizen engagement, and open digital infrastructure.



The Smart Elite City (High-Low): A scenario where open data is accessible to elites and technocrats, with limited public participation.



Silent Technology (Low-High): A future marked by high civic engagement but opaque decision-making environments.



The Closed City (Low-Low): Dominated by data monopolies, minimal participation, and authoritarian control.



The findings suggest that achieving an inclusive smart city requires more than technological advancement; the quality of governance institutions and the degree of societal participation are equally—if not more—critical. The developed scenarios serve as cognitive tools to help urban decision-makers anticipate possible futures and formulate adaptive strategies accordingly.